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In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“The truth is, I think the Biden will have a better chance at re-election than the environment (whatever it is in 2024) will suggest, because Trump will make the election about him rather the environment. Should Trump lose the primary, he'll go nuclear on the GOP nominee.”08 Sep 2022 18:37:23Advertising on Twitter can be a great way to reach a large audience of potential customers. With so many engaged users, Twitter provides businesses with the opportunity to target their desired audiences and share their message in an effecti...On the fringes, Johnson seems to have weathered the storm in WI, and is probably headed for a third term, although a systemic poll error against Rs could create a ...Sep 12, 2021 · “I've been mulling over some of the defenses of Australia's anti-COVID regime from liberal friends, and the ACLU's defense of vaccine mandates. I can't decide if this is a one-off, or some greater shift in American liberalism. 1/” Sean T at RCP. Follow @SeanTrende. Nov 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read Bookmark . Save as PDF . My Authors My basic view of this election hasn’t changed over the cycle; it’s the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, not choices. 1/01 Nov 2022 23:09:39“But in a wave year, these will come into varying degrees of play. So if the generic ballot starts to reach R+6 or so (which is probably about right if Biden stays in the low 40s) you're suddenly in a scenario where about 30 seats suddenly come into play. 5/”Nov 3, 2021 · Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende · Nov 3, 2021 Replying to @SeanTrende suggesting that Trump's '20 gains among Hispanic are potentially sticking. Swings from 2020 are in working class townships, suggesting continued movement for voters there. If there's a silver lining for Ds, its that the wealthier townships in the northwest didn't move as much. ... sean, Dget norms for iti, Adolescent clothing, 841n dd wrt repeater, Dove grey color code, Moonwalker thriller dance, Hopkins kovalev 24/7 hbo, Recycling ...“@jibberegg @Nate_Cohn @ZachWeiner The version I came across didn't have the attribution, but I am happy to have it attached (by my replying, this should bump the comment up to the top of the comment chain). Thanks!”Nov 6, 2022 · “This remains the key chart for how big GOP House gains will be: Biden vote share by the number of districts with that vote share. At R+3 or so nationally, the GOP starts to climb the levy that Democrats built with Biden +10 (or so) districts. 1/” Oct 30, 2018 · In this conversation. Verified account Replying to @apearlma@SeanTrende. My understanding has been that the public health officials want people to mask because they're worried about this sort of transmission. My basic sense is that this is headed toward vaccinated people not needing to mask. But we need to know definitively about whether they can.Sean Trende is the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is the author of "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs and Who Will Take It," and co-authored the ...In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersNov 6, 2018 · Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende Sr. Elections Analyst at RCP. Co-Author, Almanac Am. Pols. 2014. Recovering Attorney. If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention. Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love …The Amazon broadcast briefly zoomed in on Payton and allowed fans (and possibly opposing teams) to get a great view of his play sheet.pic.twitter.com/xNtqwDFe0B — Sean T at RCP is a free elf (@SeanTrende) November 9, 2022. In House races rated as tossup or "lean" by 538, Democrats …“@jbview @yeselson I guess I feel like a representative doesn't lose by 35 points without seriously deviating from constituents' impressions of what they're about. But I think it's an interesting way of looking at it, and maybe her earlier campaigns don't conform to my expectations.”Log in. Sign upIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@speechboy71 I can absolutely buy he's solid. Honestly, I just have a lawyer friend on Facebook claiming this is obviously unethical of Mueller, and I'm trying to figure out independently what the issues are. I don't know why people are going DefCon 1 …9 Kas 2022 ... Live updating with the latest developments from the 2022 midterm elections, including the results in Arizona and Nevada, as Democrats ...Sean T at RCP. Follow @SeanTrende. Nov 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read Bookmark . Save as PDF . My Authors My basic view of this election hasn’t changed over the cycle; it’s the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, not choices. 1/Mar 3, 2022 · Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.“@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.”“One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/”“Think of it this way: We're in a river channel right now with levies on either side, and the river is rising. As long as we stay in the channel seat losses will be surprisingly muted. But if the river rises much higher, all hell breaks loose …Keep Current with Sean T at RCP. Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author! Add to "My Authors" Read all threads. ... Try unrolling a thread yourself! Follow @ThreadReaderApp; to mention us! From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll. Practice here first or read more on ...“So I don't know. Ideology certainly matters less than the 4th grade civics version, where candidates give speeches and voters decide who they agree with the most on the issues. I just think some of the current crop of Dem candidates are problematic for Democrats in unique ways.”08 Sep 2022 18:37:23“I don't know that there is much more that we realistically could have done in Afghanistan, but it's just really sad to watch this if you're old enough to remember ink-stained fingers, Karzai in his cool hat, and the general air of hopefulness that once prevailed there.”In this conversation. Verified account“Mason has been singing the same song over and over again for the past 20m in his little 8 y/o boy voice and one nice thing about having three is that I recognize that voice (and maybe the singing) will be gone in the blink of an eye. So when he stops, I ask him to sing it again.”“Don't get me wrong, your best bet with pols is often to be cynical. But the options here seem to be some combination of Manchin is (a) sincere-ish, (b) thinks he's going to win re-election in 2024, (c) feels a duty not to represent his R+23 state as if it were Vermont.”“Alright, Florida (mostly), Georgia, IN-01, Western KY, SC, VT and VA are on deck. Then at 8, all hell breaks loose.”“Here in the real world Silver gives Demings a 1-in-17 chance of beating Rubio, but sure, why not?”Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende. ... Still early, but she's running ahead of Obama in 7 of the 8 IN counties reporting. 11:50 PM · Nov 8, 2016 · Twitter Web Client. 225.Aug 3, 2022 · “This is really straightforward, and it's one of those things that separates serious people from unserious ones in my mind. Heck, even if the blame ultimately falls with the GOP voters, there's no justification for becoming a party to this loon potentially winning. Not that hard.” “@Izengabe_ @fawfulfan More to the point, the typical way we do a quick-and-dirty assessment of a state's political orientation is PVI, and Kentucky is a point redder than Vermont is blue. If one wants to make a nuanced critique of CPVI here that's fine, but at that point you've lost the plot.”Jul 5, 2022 · “Here in the real world Silver gives Demings a 1-in-17 chance of beating Rubio, but sure, why not?” “I mean, Cameron County 50-50 with half the vote counted? Obama beat Romney here by 30 points. He won Willacy County by 40 (which is also tied right now). I mean later votes will probably shift things but the fact that this is even close in a congressional race . . .”Sep 29, 2022 · Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "Democrats maintaining control of ... ... Log in Recovering Att'y. Married to. @emytrende. , dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. Sean T at RCP is a free elf. 2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579.Jun 1, 2022 · “So many other low points, like horses on Star Destroyers, or Chewie fake dying, or C3P0 fake losing his memory, or the weird Kimiji storyline, or a Palpatine appropriating the Skywalker name. But here's the thing, most of the problems were not of Ep. IX's making. 7/” A new book about Sen. Mitt Romney details his interactions with Fox News host Sean Hannity. Romney and Hannity were allies, but the TV host turned on the senator over his anti-MAGA posture. Romney ...Nov 8, 2022 · “Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/” Jun 7, 2021 · “@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.” “I've been mulling over some of the defenses of Australia's anti-COVID regime from liberal friends, and the ACLU's defense of vaccine mandates. I can't decide if this is a one-off, or some greater shift in American liberalism. 1/”“@rem110892 My pt is better to learn the lesson now than later in life when the consequences really are more severe (obvs not the death penalty lol). For this, a clear statement from the league and a "two strikes and you're out for the season" rule would suffice for me, others want more.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersOct 19, 2022 · “I think a lot of problems with Rhaenys Targaryen not incinerating the Greens comes from the weird gender politics the show has embraced. One of the interesting thing about GOT was it wasn't afraid to make the female characters as crazy and murderous as the men. 1/” “@Nate_Cohn Yeah, part of the problem is the modern right's disdain for academia/anti-Intellectual-ism, combined with the fact that the CRT stuff has a fair amount of overlap with traditional racial liberalism stuff. So it's easy to lump them together.”Sean Trende is the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is the author of "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs and Who Will Take It," and co-authored the ...“So many other low points, like horses on Star Destroyers, or Chewie fake dying, or C3P0 fake losing his memory, or the weird Kimiji storyline, or a Palpatine appropriating the Skywalker name. But here's the thing, most of the problems were not of Ep. IX's making. 7/”Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende. I am not dismissive of these studies, but in retrospect my friends in high school who were the most into drugs tended to be self-medicating for anxiety/depression. Hard to separate chickens from eggs here. Quote Tweet. Gary Rosen. Jordan's supporters have made some GOP lawmakers more entSean T at RCP. Follow @SeanTrende. Nov 8 • 8 tweets • 2 “The story that makes the most sense re the leak is actually Chief Justice Roberts, trying to illustrate to a swing justice what the backlash would be like. But it is also completely out of character for Roberts; burn the village …Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. “One final thought on the Clinton-Comey thing Log in. Sign up May 21, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. Verified account P...

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